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10 May 2025 - 07:14 am

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 30. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
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—
Just about everyone thought it was a bluff. Top analysts from the biggest banks on Wall Street said it was highly unlikely. Stocks were trading like it wouldn’t happen. Some companies built contingency plans, but they weren’t exactly rushing to make changes.
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But the tariffs are coming — in full force. President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a massive 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and most imports from Canada will go into effect Tuesday. An additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods will be enacted the same day.

Trump in a message posted on Truth Social Sunday said, “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use.” But America’s supply chains are reliant on its trading partners, and even for goods that could be grown or produced exclusively in the United States, the complex web of interconnected global trade cannot easily be unwound.
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So the additional costs on foreign-made goods will be paid by American importers, who typically pass those costs onto retailers, who pass them onto inflation-weary consumers. That means prices will rise — although, for most items, not immediately. Businesses’ profits will be squeezed as they bear the cost burden of the tariffs or pay to adjust their carefully constructed and at times inflexible supply chains.

That’s why stocks on Monday were set to tumble. Dow futures were more than 600 points, or 1.3% lower. S&P 500 futures sank 1.5%. and Nasdaq futures were 1.7% lower.

Globally, stocks fell, too. Major European indexes were down across the board, and Asian markets closed sharply lower. Bitcoin and other cryptos tumbled, brought down by growing fears of a recession. The US dollar rose sharply.

Energy costs surged: US crude oil rose 2.3% and natural gas spiked 7%. Despite a lower 10% tariff on Canadian electricity, natural gas and oil exports to the United States, the energy industry said it will not be able to quickly or easily find alternate sources. Diesel and jet fuel costs in particular will rise, according to Angie Gildea, the US energy sector lead at accounting firm KPMG, adding costs to all shipped goods and air travel.
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“Any infrastructure upgrades would not happen overnight,” Gildea told CNN. “Tariffs on Canadian oil would increase costs for US refiners, leading to price hikes for consumers.”

Auto industry stock futures were particularly hard-hit, because virtually all American-made cars are manufactured at least in some part in Mexico or Canada — what was a free-trade zone. GM (GM) fell more than 6%, Jeep and Chrysler maker Stellantis (STLA) was down 5% and Ford (F) fell more than 3%.

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10 May 2025 - 06:32 am

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Trump's early afternoon announcement followed a harrowing week in which Republican lawmakers and confidants privately warned him that the tariffs could wreck the economy. His own aides had quietly raised alarms about the financial markets before he suspended a tariff regime that he had unveiled with a flourish just one week earlier in a Rose Garden ceremony.

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The stock market rose immediately after the about-face, ending days of losses that have forced older Americans who've been sinking their savings into 401(k)s to rethink their retirement plans.

Ahead of Trump's announcement, some of his advisers had been in a near panic about the bond markets, according to a senior administration official. Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds had been rising, contrary to what normally happens when stock prices fall and investors seek safety in treasuries. The unusual dynamic meant that at the same time the tariffs could push up prices, people would be paying more to buy homes or pay off credit card debt because of higher interest rates. Businesses looking to expand would pay more for new loans.
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Two of Trump's most senior advisers, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, presented a united front Wednesday, urging him to suspend the tariffs in light of the bond market, the administration official said.

In a social media post, Trump announced a 90-day pause that he said he’ll use to negotiate deals with dozens of countries that have expressed openness to revising trade terms that he contends exploit American businesses and workers. One exception is China. Trump upped the tariff on the country’s biggest geopolitical rival to 125%, part of a tit-for-tat escalation in an evolving trade war.

Trump reversed course one week after he appeared in the Rose Garden and unveiled his plan to bring jobs back to the United States. Displaying a chart showing the new, elevated tariffs that countries would face, Trump proclaimed, “My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.”
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